Why this year is going to be different and what led to Lamar Jackson's previous struggles in the postseason

When Lamar Jackson lines up against the Texans on Saturday, it will be his first postseason game in 1,099 days.. Amazingly, Jackson hasn’t played in the playoffs since the Ravens’ 17-3 divisional round loss to Buffalo more than three years ago. That’s primarily because Jackson had injuries that ended his season the prior two years.

Either way, it’s been quite a while, so I’ll give you a refresher on just how bad it’s been in the playoffs for the soon-to-be two-time league MVP.

Jackson has a 1-3 career postseason record, to start. Compared to Jackson’s number of playoff victories, Patrick Mahomes has won two Super Bowls. Since joining the league in 2018, Jackson has achieved the same number of victories in the playoffs as John Wolford. Whom? That’s right. The same mark as a third-string quarterback for the Rams from 2020 who was benched after just one quarter of a postseason victory. Although Jackson has a poor postseason record, there is currently no reason for concern. After all, over his five seasons, Peyton Manning had a 0–3 postseason record. It could have been a worse start to his career.

What’s concerning about Jackson’s postseason record is the statistics around it. Jackson’s playoff career is only averaging 13.0 points per game for the Ravens. Only Andy Dalton has a lower total among quarterbacks with at least four playoff starts over the last 30 seasons than that of this one. With six interceptions and one touchdown pass, Dalton’s playoff record is 0–4. Not the business you wish to maintain.

In the postseason, Jackson has a 68.3 passer rating, seven turnovers, and four touchdowns overall. This represents the fifth-largest decline in NFL history as his passer rating falls by nearly 30 points from his regular-season career.

Though not everyone enjoys passer ratings, give this one a try: Since 2000, at least 46 quarterbacks have started in playoff games. In terms of EPA per play over that period, only Rex Grossman (-0.22) and Dalton (-0.22) are worse than Jackson (-0.18).

In each of the four postseason games they have played with Jackson, the Ravens have dug themselves into significant holes. In three of those four games, they have failed to score a touchdown in the opening three quarters and have trailed by double digits in every game. As a matter of fact, over his playoff career, Jackson has only completed touchdown passes while down by at least 13 points in the fourth quarter. It has indeed been that awful.

When it comes to passer rating (49.6) and EPA per play (-0.37) in the first three quarters of postseason games since 2000, Jackson is ranked dead last. Of the 46 quarterbacks with at least four starts, that is.

It hasn’t been all bad for Jackson. He ran for 136 yards, including a 48-yard touchdown run, in his only career playoff win vs. the Titans in the 2020 wild-card round.

Why has he had difficulty?

To learn more about why Jackson and Baltimore’s offense have failed to advance past the first round in the playoffs, I examined the tape of his four career postseason starts.

trembling from the strain

Jackson has been the season’s improv king (more on that later), but with the pressure of the playoffs on him, his performance has been dreadful. In the postseason, he is just 9 for 34 passing against pressure, which is the lowest completion percentage (27%) in the league since 2018 (minimum of 25 attempts). His off-target percentage during pressure has gone from 15% during the regular season to 32% during the playoffs, and he has appeared spooked. Even when pressed for time, he continually missed chances that he typically took.

Pocket-moving

To keep as many eyes on Jackson as possible and stop him on scrambles, defenses have also played Jackson differently in the postseason, blitzing less and using more zone coverage. So yet, he hasn’t replied by making them into a pocket knife. In addition to his poor accuracy (which was already mentioned), he has also missed checkdowns, held onto the ball too long, and overlooked open receivers, all of which have led to additional sacks. During his playoff career, he completed 59% of his attempts with a completion percentage of 6.5 yards per attempt, two touchdown passes, five interceptions, and a 65.7 rating from the pocket.

Poorer playmakers and systems

Jackson wasn’t helped by the Ravens’ supporting group during the postseason either. For Jackson’s first four seasons as the starting wide receiver for the Ravens, no team spent less money on wide receivers. In that time frame, no team’s wideouts gained fewer receiving yards. When Willie Snead was their second-best receiver in the playoffs, it became evident that they were having trouble separating the field or producing plays after the catch. Jackson’s running abilities served as the foundation of Baltimore’s prior offensive scheme. Less spread offense, two-tight end sets, and athleticism—a concept that was unsuccessful in January—were used on the field.

Why this year is different

When asked this week about the Ravens offense in the postseason considering its troubles in his previous playoff appearances, Jackson gave a “very confident” response.

He is justified in every way. This season, he set a career high of 8.0 yards per pass attempt and had his second-highest pass play success percentage (49%) after his MVP campaign in 2019.

Jackson’s passing prowess is being highlighted by Todd Monken’s new scheme in Baltimore, which should serve as a better template for the postseason. The Ravens are faster, more dispersed, and have greater talent. They are testing the outside of the field and causing more damage after the catch with more three-wide receiver setups. Jackson’s ability to get open in the scramble drill made him the NFL’s best quarterback when under pressure this season, averaging an NFL-best 8.7 yards per attempt.